Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The time value of money in "live" poker

Here's another installment of my mind-bending statistical anomalies in poker: the time value of money in live poker.

Consider this…

In a live game, with a full table, you average about 30 hands an hour.

At 2-5 stakes and higher, the table charge is typically around $5 - $8 pph (per person, per half), and some charge a "Bad Beat" fee. Let's omit for the moment that some rooms elect to implement the "time-pot" based system, and others are "time-charge" based - an entire discussion on the topic can be devoted to argue which is more egregious to the player. Also, further assume, albeit a bad assumption, that dealer tips are not included in our calculations

So, on average, a player loses $13 to $18 per hour at the table --- let's round it off to $15 per hour for our discussion.

Take a sampling of 100 hours which equates to about 3000 hands; A winning online player is considered beating the game if he is rated at 0-3 BBs / 100 hands, 4-7 BBs is crushing the game, and is "running hot" if he is rated at 8+ BBs.

Say, in live play, you managed to track your P&L for 100 hours, and got yourself a rating of 10 BB / 100 --- by internet definition, you're playing God-Mode, and destroying the game, right?

In 100 hours of 2-5 play, you racked up 10 x BB (of $5) x 30 = $1,500 profit. Note, that this equates to an hourly rate of $15/hr.

** But, wait, during that time, you paid out nearly $1500 in table charges!!! Your gross profit is really about $3,000 --- which gives you a BB/100 rating of nearly 20, that puts you into Super-God-Mode.

Was pondering this anomaly, and asking the question, is the 2-5 live game really profitable? Should one consider dropping down to 1-2 stakes to avoid the higher rake per hour? Play more low/mid level home games with a low or no rake at all. Or, jump up to a steady 5-5, 5-10, 10-25 diet. A higher BB will obviously yield a higher net profit -- assuming your skill level is a winning one, and scales linearly at those levels (probably another bad assumption).

** addendum - if you were to consider poker as a profession… try to draw a parallel to your current job. Would you ever pay $50k in commuter, license, etc costs, only to earn a net salary of $50k, and claim that your gross income is $100k?

Why do you play poker? As a form of supplemental income? Do you enjoy it, as a social event? A forum to inflict jedi mind tricks, and engage in psychological warfare with the tourists? As a time killer? To get away from the spouse, and hang out? The simple enjoyment of looking down at pocket A-As every 120+ hands? Is there another hobby/activity that you can enjoy that yields a better hourly rate than $15 / hr?